Prof. Huang Renwei (iGCU Academic Committee member; Vice Dean of the Institute of Belt and Road & Global Governance @FudanUni) recently wrote on the three significant changes in the world economy following the Russia-Ukraine conflicts: changes in the global energy system, international monetary system, and Russia’s economic pivot to the East.
Concerning shifts in the global energy system, Prof. Huang notest hat the conflict has disrupted energy supply routes between Russia and Europe, compelling Europe to seek costlier alternatives from North America and elsewhere. The changes have also precipitated economic downturns across Europe, notably in Germany, and facilitated there direction of Russian energy exports mainly to China and India, spurring their energy stability.
Regarding changes in the international monetary system, Prof. Huang observes that Russia's exclusion from the SWIFT international banking system led it to sidestep the US dollar and Euro, increasingly favoring the Chinese Yuan for international transactions. This shift has inspired other countries to lessen their dependence on the U.S. dollar as a reserve currency and for international trade, challenging the dollar's supremacy in global financial markets.
On Russia’s economic pivot towards the East, Prof. Huang suggests that the economic sanctions the U.S. imposed on Russia and geopolitical pressures have forced Russia to redirect economic focus from Europe to the Far East, particularly the resource-rich regions of Siberia and the Russian Far East. This pivot represents a major strategic realignment, potentially paving the way for the emergence of a "North Asia" economic and geopolitical bloc, encompassing Northeast China, the Russian Far East, Siberia, and Mongolia. Such adevelopment could profoundly transform the global economic landscape.
To read more in Chinese, please visit: https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/A6OPWNPkPdY87EARpXtUGA
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