Professor Zhang Yun, the special invited expert at Peking University’s Center for Global Governance and Professor at the School of International Relations, Nanjing University, commented on Japanese Prime Minister Takashi Hayashi’s recent three-day visit to the United States (March 18–20). The commentary explored the current state of US-Japan relations, differences between the two countries, and Japan’s self-positioning amid the superimposition of Sino–US–Japanese structural contradictions and the new era’s changes.
Prof. Zhang summarized Takashi Hayashi’s US visit with the words “superficially glorious, essentially impactful”. On the surface, the US gave Takashi Hayashi a state visit-level reception, and the two sides discussed cooperation in missile production, including plans to quadruple production of the improved interceptor missile “SM-3 Block 2A”. However, shortly before the talks, the US Office of the Director of National Intelligence released the 2026 Threat Assessment Report, dealing a strategic blow to Japan. The report downplayed Japan’s long emphasized so-called “Taiwan Strait contingency,” thereby weakening the strategic and theoretical rationale for its arms expansion. It also characterized Takashi Hayashi’s statement that “a Taiwan emergency may constitute an existential crisis for Japan” as a “major shift”, while cautioning that escalating Sino–Japanese tensions could invite Chinese countermeasures.
Prof. Zhang highlighted the unequal nature of the US–Japan alliance, noting that Washington’s dominance places Tokyo in a long-standing “alliance dilemma”. They argued that the US prefers a controllable ally to a fully independent Japan and will restrain Tokyo when it appears to cross strategic red lines. The 2026 Annual Threat Assessment Report sends a clear signal from the US to Japan: Washington remains the helmsman of the alliance, and Japan should neither outpace US policy nor adopt a more assertive tone. Moreover, Takashi Hayashi’s attempt to center the talks on the “China issue” was diverted by US President Donald Trump towards the “Middle East issue.” These developments, coupled with Japan’s huge economic concessions to the US, which further narrowed its diplomatic maneuverability, reflect the substantive impact of the US on Japan behind the “glorious” visit.
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