By Caijing Journalist MA Guochuan, from an interview with JIA Qingguo, Director of Institute for Global Cooperation and Understanding

“China has adopted some effective measures against COVID-19 pandemic, and we also have reasons to feel lucky and learn the lessons”, said Professor JIA Qingguo, former Dean of School of International Studies of Peking University. Currently, he is a member of the standing committee of Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), and a member of CPPCC’s Committee of Foreign Affairs. During a telephone interview with Caijing’s journalist, Professor JIA analyzed the impact of the pandemic on international relations, and called on all nations to fight the pandemic together by leveraging existing international cooperation mechanisms.

In his opinion, COVID-19 pandemic may not only accelerate the existing trend of de-globalization, but also further drive globalization. China has to be pragmatic and rational when dealing with the United States, “(China) has to consider how to stabilize the bilateral relationship, and start collaboration from there.”

The scholar pointed out that the on-going public health crisis will further speed up the restructuring of the world order, while highlighting the importance and necessity of building the community of shared future for mankind. “We have yet to see the full scale of the profound impact of COVID-19 pandemic, which may lead to new ‘black swans’,” said Professor JIA, “2020 is certainly going to be a tumultuous year, and the world needs to be prepared.”

Chinese Measures Effective against COVID-19

Caijing: Currently, COVID-19 outbreak has been basically stabilized in China, while many other countries are busy bringing the situation under control. Regarding the mitigation measures adopted by the US, the UK and Italy, Chinese netizens raised their criticisms and doubts. How should mitigation measures of other countries be judged?

JIA Qingguo: Countries have their own characteristics, which shape their strategies when facing such crisis. At this moment, there are indeed many problems with the actions some Western countries have taken to address this crisis. But now it is not the time to criticize and blame, we need to encourage and support those countries to do a better job and take more effective actions.

For any country, any of the Chinese strategy, Singaporean strategy or South Korean strategy can be taken as good reference. A strategy shall be selected or denied, not because of the ideology or political system of a particular country, but rather based on the best outcome for the people of that country. As long as the strategy is scientific and effective, it can be “copied” in a pragmatic manner. It is difficult to choose between curbing the spread of the disease and restricting individual freedom. But in times of crisis, we need to choose the lesser of two evils.

Caijing: It is also concerned that, this pandemic might fuel nationalism and statism.

JIA Qingguo: In general, China has adopted some effective measures against the pandemic, and we also have reasons to feel lucky. Nevertheless, nationalistic thoughts and opinions shall not be encouraged. It is normal for China to do a good job. It is normal for the great Chinese people to do a good job. But we should not become complacent because we did well, and definitely not look down on other countries. China has not only plenty room for self-improvement, but also many things to learn from other countries. We shall not allow ourselves to become conceit and impatient. Arrogance after initial achievement is very harmful.

Now it is not yet the time to celebrate, but to review, reflect and improve. We need to review to identify positive experience in disease control, and to reflect the problems exposed by the pandemic. Based on the reflections, we can improve the existing disease prevention and control mechanisms, in order to make sure that we will do a better job in the future, and thus provide a better model of disease control to the rest of the world.

At present, China is at a stage of development that has been unprecedented since 1840. As the second largest economy of the world, China is now able to do many things that it could not in the past. As a result, it is quite natural for Chinese people to feel happy and proud about it. However, we shall avoid deliberately emphasizing it, which may bring unintended undesirable consequences.

In fact, China demonstrated some weaknesses and shortcomings, in the handling of this unexpected public health crisis. In particular, at the beginning of the crisis, the outbreak was not reported to higher authority, and initial responses were slow. We need to improve the legal and administrative systems, in order to ensure immediate reporting of epidemics, timely and scientific decision-making, and effective response and mitigation. Only by achieving these, could we better response to future public health crises, and minimize their impact.

Caijing: If we don’t treat those problems seriously, then all the prices we have paid during the crisis are spent in vain.

JIA Qingguo: In a previous article titledClearer Explanation, Better Understanding and China’s Political Progress, I proposed to put in place comprehensive and systematic elaboration and explanation of the system, as well as to reform, improve and rationalize the part which cannot be clarified. In fact, in most cases timely clarification and explanation work better than containment, in addressing the tsunami of public opinion. Many people criticize with the hope that a better job can be done. So we cannot label all criticisms as hostile. The public will find a well-explained and –clarified policy more acceptable; on the other hand, if the policy cannot be clarified or explained, then changes need to be made to have better outcomes the next time. If all criticisms are silenced, then there will be lack of awareness when changes have to be made. The subsequent delay in action will be costly and bring no good.

Sharing China’s Experiences and Lessons

Caijing: There has been criticisms on World Health Organization (WHO) in the international community. How would you evaluate the role WHO has played in this public health crisis?

JIA Qingguo: In general, WHO has done what it should and could do in this crisis: firstly, organize experts to evaluate the pandemic situation, and send people to the ground zero Wuhan to collect first-hand information; secondly, sound the alarm for the world, and introduce Chinese practices. Some criticisms on WHO from the international community are ideological, because some find it very difficult to accept the fact that China is able to effectively deal with the pandemic.

But more criticisms are due to lack of understanding of WHO, who is not omnipotent. Like many other international organizations, WHO has big limitations, of which the most prominent is the limited authorization. WHO is an organization of sovereign states, who make all decisions. WHO can only provide information and advices, which can be accepted or ignored by sovereign states. Given the limited power in its hand, WHO has done really well this time.

Caijing: But shouldn’t WHO be held responsible, since COVID-19 has propagated to the whole world?

JIA Qingguo: Judging whether or not WHO is responsible, we need to check what it has done and based on what standards. Some technical issues might be controversial, but in general, WHO has played its due role this time. It has very limited power, and it is subjected to huge pressure. For example, to determine the development stage of the pandemic situation is a controversial issue. Every country has its own consideration, and may exert pressure on WHO for its own interest.

Indeed, the world is lucky to have such an organization. Without WHO, the world can only have even worse outcomes fighting against this pandemic. Can WHO do a better job and do more in the future? Well, this depends on whether sovereign states are willing to give it more power and follow its command. For COVID-19, if the US and Western countries had listened to WHO earlier, then they would not be in such a dire situation now. In foreseeable future, sovereign states will not follow WHO’s command either, putting it in an awkward situation. This also applies to understanding the behaviors of all international organizations, including the United Nations. The reality is , these international organizations do not enjoy the corresponding power and support, at the same time they are required to do something beyond their power.

Caijing: Now COVID-19 is affecting more than 100 countries and territories, infecting more than 110,000 people. To prevent an even greater disaster, the countries have to stand together in this fight. Is there a lack of collaboration mechanism?

JIA Qingguo: There are such mechanisms, such as G7, G20, the United Nations and other existing international collaboration mechanisms. The problem now is such mechanisms have not been fully utilized. One importance reason is that the administration of the World’s No.1 Power, i.e. the Trump Administration, does not value neither international cooperation, nor international organizations or mechanisms. It does not care about other countries, but only the US itself, which is exactly “America First” preached by Trump. Since the most powerful country has adopted such attitude towards international cooperation, it is certainly difficult for relevant mechanisms to work well.

Caijing: Since the end of WWII seven decades ago, have international mechanisms played more prominent and positive roles?

JIA Qingguo: Yes, for many times. For example, when Iraq invaded Kuwait, the UN Security Council adopted a resolution to organize troops to drive Iraq out. In 2008, following the outbreak of the Global Financial Crisis, G20 countries worked together and hugely mitigated the impact of the crisis on real economy.

However, during the current public health crisis, the White House has mostly adopted unilateral measures, not consulting or collaborating with other countries. The US put a ban on EU flights entering its territory, before communicating with EU countries. Even US allies were not treated nicely, let alone other countries.

Caijing: In order to avoid the global catastrophe to get even worse, what should China do?

JIA Qingguo: first and foremost, China should share its experience and lessons to the rest of the world. In fighting against COVID-19 pandemic, China has accumulated many experiences, and encountered many problems in the early stage of the outbreak. We have the responsibility and duty to introduce our experiences and lessons to other countries, in order to help them better mitigate the crisis.

Secondly, China shall provide assistance within its capacities, to countries in need, including the Less Developed Countries with shortage of public health resources. COVID-19 pandemic poses potentially catastrophic threat to these countries. With their explicit consent, China shall help them prepare and implement preventative disease control measures.

Thirdly, regarding the tremendous impact of COVID-19 on world economy, China should call on greater communication and collaboration among the major countries, as well as active implementation of measures to stabilize world economy, including convening a G20 Online Summit to discuss how to address a deteriorating economic situation.

“Deglobalization” is not the Way Forward

Caijing: Will COVID-19 pandemic accelerate the trend of deglobalzation that has been there over the years?

JIA Qingguo: the pandemic can both accelerate deglobalization, and promote globalization.

Currently, due to the evolving pandemic situation, international trade and people-to-people exchange have shrank drastically. Compounded by additional provocations, the consequent impact on globalization is severe. However, it is only a short-term impact, as the trend of globalization is unstoppable. Trade is a complementary way to increase wealth, while developments in transportation and telecommunication technology have made international trade faster and cheaper. These two factors have made economic globalization an inevitable trend for the world, hugely benefiting the human society.

People won’t deny globalization either. History has shown that countries that locked themselves behind closed doors, or went against the macro trend did not end up very well. Of course, it is difficult to determine how long this “short-term” will be. But one thing is for sure, from a macro historic perspective, deglobalization is not the way forward. This pandemic also serves as a reminder that we all live in the same world, and how important mutual assistance and stronger collaboration are in this fight to stop the epidemic and save the falling economy.

Caijing: this pandemic is also regarded as an experiment on “China-US Decoupling”. While most economists think the decoupling is impossible, some believe the possibility could not be ruled out. What is your opinion?

JIA Qingguo: under normal circumstances, the decoupling is impossible. However, we cannot rule out its possibility. Because people, usually rational under normal circumstances, may do something irrational due to all kinds of reasons. When MENG Wanzhou was arrested in Canada, I sudden felt that the decoupling might be possible in reality. If a US CEO was arrested in China or in other countries at the request of China as a counter-measure, then the two economies would soon decouple. Of course, this is only possible under highly extreme circumstances. In the decades after WWII, US leaders were quite practical and rational, thus the possibility of decoupling was minimized. But now it has been amplified due to the impulsiveness and uncertainty associated with the current US administration.

Caijing: Under current circumstances, how to avoid “China-US Decoupling”?

JIA Qingguo: China has to remain rational and pragmatic when handling China-US relations. At the moment, politicians in Washington are having heated debates on all the other issues, but are achieving consensus on the China policy, advising to take a tough stance against China. I think this is emotional. When facing such situation, China has to remain calm emotionally and strategically. It shall not mirror what the other party has said or done. Some US politicians advocated that COVID-19 originated from China, but China does not need to react by saying that COVID-19 originated from the US. In short, China shall not be misled by US anti-China extremists.

Rational and practical handling of China-US relations, means that no deliberate efforts are needed to either augment or restrict bilateral trade relations or people-to-people exchange – let them flow in a natural way. Therefore, we need to find ways to stabilize bilateral relations. When Washington calms down and becomes more rational, and when the time is right, China can then figure out ways to promote bilateral ties together with the US.

Diplomatically, official comments shall not be directed towards extreme opinions among the US public. It is better for official comments to just address the official positions and comments of the US. When challenged, Chinese diplomats shall remain calm, rational, and poised.

Accelerating World Order Restructuring

Caijing: Since the Global Finance Crisis in 2008, world order has undergone restructuring. Will the pandemic outbreak accelerate the pace of restructuring?

JIA Qingguo: The pace of restructuring will definitely go faster. Since the end of Cold War, the “Rising East and Falling West” pattern has been observed. China and some developing countries showed good momentum for growth, while Western countries experienced a gradual decline in their power and influence on the world. Due to various reasons, up till now, the US has yet to figure out an effective way to close the widening gap between the rich and the poor. European countries have more problems to solve. In addition, COVID-19 pandemic has considerable impact on both the North Atlantic Alliance and the European Union, with greater impact on the former given the weakening trends earlier on. Oriental countries including China, and Asian countries in particular, just need to do their jobs well. The “Rising East and Falling West” trend will not change, only be accelerated by the epidemic outbreak.

Caijing: Why East Asian countries like China, Japan, ROK, Singapore have responded to the pandemic much more effectively?

JIA Qingguo: This might directly link to cultural values. People from these countries emphasize more on self-discipline, and behave in a rather rational and practical way, not in a casual and romantic way like the Europeans and Americans. Unlike the West, East Asian societies attach greater importance to collective interest. Mr. Lee Kuan Yew once proposed “Asian Values”, and said that “East Asians (people from Japan, ROK, Chinese Taiwan, Hong Kong SAR and Singapore) have more collectivism values and practices”. He believes that, East Asian culture emphasizes more on collective interests, while Western countries emphasize more on individual interests, with their citizens not willing to do their governments’ bidding. From the East Asian perspective, collective interests shape individual interests, which can only be protected if collective interests are preserved. This is perhaps the reason why East Asian countries are dealing with COVID-19 pandemic more effectively.

No matter Oriental countries or Western countries, they actually emphasize both collective and individual interests, just with slightly different preference resulting in difference balances.

Caijing: At present, anti-COVID-19 efforts of various countries are not coordinated. As the crisis gets even worse, will new conflicts emerge?

JIA Qingguo: The current disagreements are not yet powerful enough to result in conflicts between countries. However, with all forms of skepticisms emerging, it becomes increasingly difficult to say for sure whether such conflicts will happen or not. We need to stay alert to and take precautions against such conflicts.

The ongoing public health crisis has further highlighted the importance and necessity of building the community of shared future for mankind. Of course, there must be more specific elaborations under this grand concept.

The profound impact of the pandemic has yet to reach its full scale, potentially leading to new “black swans”. 2020 is certainly going to be a tumultuous year, and the world needs to be prepared.

Note：The Chinese version of this article has been published by Caijing on March 18,2020.

Link: https://finance.sina.cn/china/cjpl/2020-03-18/detail-iimxxsth0003067.d.html