On the morning of October 24, 2018, Mr. David Gordon visited the School of International Studies and had a discussion with teachers and students in Conference Room C105 on the theme of "The United States and China: Why an Economic Cold War is not Inevitable". The symposium, jointly organised by the Institute for China-U.S. People-to-People Exchange of Peking University, and the Centre for International Political Economy of Peking University, is one of the series of High-end Lectures on China-U.S. People-to-People Exchanges and events of the Kim Koo Forum. Professor Jia Qingguo, Dean of the School of International Studies and Director of the Institute for China-U.S. People-to-People Exchange of Peking University, extended a warm welcome to Mr. Gordon for his second visit.
The symposium was chaired by Professor Wang Yong, Director of the Centre for International Political Economy, Peking University. Professor Ding Dou, Associate Professor Chen Shaofeng, Associate Professor Wang Dong, and Associate Professor Jie Dalei of School of International Studies, Peking University, Professor Li Qingsi of School of International Studies, Renmin University of China, and many other teachers attended the symposium. More than 10 doctoral and master's degree students from the School of International Studies of Peking University attended the symposium.
With regard to "The United States and China: Why an Economic Cold War is not Inevitable", Mr. Gordon's views are as follows:
First, U.S.-China relations are at a critical point, and the Trump administration is the result of long-term gestation and adjustment of U.S.-China relations. Economic problems have changed America's understanding of China. The Trump administration has redefined the role of the United States in the world economically, taking a different approach from the previous tradition of the United States. The relationship between the United States and China has become more complicated, and the competition among major powers has intensified. For China, the biggest tool to influence the United States is to maintain sustainable development to influence the American economy. The strategic interdependence between the United States and China comes from the economic aspect. But now, for the U.S.-China relations, that assumption is being challenged. President Trump likes to use tough trade policies as a policy tool to achieve national interests. However, President Trump is not a China Hawk, and he is just rebuilding or rebalancing China-U.S. relations, not worsening China-U.S. relations. In the short term, the trade friction between the United States and China has a great impact on China, but in fact, in the long run, trade friction is more harmful to the United States.
Second, the Trump administration chose to launch trade frictions with China before the mid-term elections and during the Mueller investigation because of domestic political considerations, which can reduce the possibility and risk of impeachment after the mid-term elections. Trade policy is a policy tool for the Trump administration to mobilise voters and control the Republican Party. Once he controls the Republican Party, President Trump will have the energy to maintain the U.S. economy. There are now some negative shocks in the U.S. market, especially the negative effects of the U.S. market caused by the downturn of the Chinese economy, and there is also a direct negative impact on the dollar. The United States is now in the peak period of economic growth, which is a cyclical phenomenon.
Third, some kind of compromise is likely to be reached between the U.S. and China at some point in the future (such as the G20 summit). Such agreement is unlikely to be comprehensive, but it may reflect the intentions of the leaders of the two countries in certain areas, such as energy.
Fourth, there will be no new economic cold war for the future of U.S.-China relations. The economic cold war means that there are few bilateral economic ties, but the United States and China, as the two largest economies in the world, are highly interdependent. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will visit China tomorrow (October 25), and Japan is likely to participate in the Belt and Road Initiative. This shows that although U.S.-China economic and trade relations are facing complex and severe challenges, China has maintained close economic ties with other U.S. economic and trade partners. International economic relations are the connection of interests between countries. This phenomenon is not in line with the Cold War. To some extent, the U.S.-China relations represent an iceberg, and trade is only one part of it. Trade makes it easier for the two sides to play a game of contact. For example, technology and investment are more likely to become the focus. There will be no great changes in these areas, and the focus of competition between the United States and China in the future will be in these areas. The economy of the United States will not be in the first place for a long time, and even highly competitive countries will have a beneficial impact on the economy of the United States.
In the interactive session, Mr. Gordon had an in-depth exchange with teachers and students about the U.S. agricultural states' support for the trade war and President Trump's support, the U.S. withdrawal from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty and the U.S.-China relationship, the reasons for Trump's insistence on waging a trade war with China despite the opposition of the American Chamber of Commerce, the relationship between Wall Street / Silicon Valley and the Trump administration's attack on the economies of Europe, Japan and China.
The exchange atmosphere was relaxed and active, and the lecture ended with warm applause. After the symposium, the participating experts and scholars took a group photo as a souvenir.
David Gordon, former Director of the Department of Policy Planning of the U.S. Department of State and former Chairman of the Eurasian Group, is now a senior advisor on geo-economics and strategy at Eurasia Group and the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) in the UK, and teaches at Georgetown University's School of Foreign Affairs.
The Institute for China-U.S. People-to-People Exchange of Peking University is a research institution approved by the Ministry of Education and undertaken by Peking University. Relying on the cultural heritage of Peking University, the Institute promotes people-to-people exchanges between China and the United States in academic research, scientific research cooperation, and cultural exchanges, and gives full play to the role of think tanks and advisers, making positive contributions to the enhancement of mutual trust and friendship between the two countries at the non-governmental level.
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