On August25, the “Global Thinkers Special”, co-organized by CGTN and iGCU, was successfully held in Beijing. Leading scholars and former dignitaries from the U.S., U.K., Norway, Singapore, Thailand, Kyrgyzstan, and Egypt were invited to the event. During the event, scholars and experts shared their distinctive viewpoints on the current geopolitical landscape as well as the prospect of developing countries in the next twenty years. Ms. Liu Xin (Senior Host of CGTN) moderated the event.
At the beginning of the event, H.E. Long Yongtu (Former Vice Minister of the Foreign Economic Cooperation and Trade of the PRC; Chief Representative for Trade Negotiations for China's Accession to the WTO; Senior Advisor of iGCU) delivered an opening remark via video. Mr. Long stressed that the Chinese people are confident on the strength of China, and have faith in both the political and economic system of China. Quoting Mr. Long, “China has the goodwill and patience to convince the developed countries that the rise of China is not a threat but a big opportunity... We (also) share the same goal as the other developing countries, which is to create peace and prosperity for the people.”
The first session of theeventthemed “Navigating Today’s Geopolitical Landscape”.
H.E. Susan Thornton (Former Acting Assistant Secretary of States for East Asian and Pacific Affairs) noted in her speech that we are living in a world that is filled with many “worrying” trends and events, such as the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, Russia-Ukraine conflict,environmental disasters, and the deteriorating China-U.S. relations. Ms. Thornton reckoned that the globally connected world is more in need of stability, rules, and institutions than ever, and thus, China and the U.S. should enhance communication, and make clear that the two countries will coexist and co-prosper. Quoting Ms. Thornton, “I am confident that we will get it right, but it will take a lot more hard work and communication between us than we've seen in recent years. It is very important that our leaders meet in person and articulate a vision for U.S.-China relations that is enduring and that others will respect. That is what I hope we are working on now, what I hope to see in the future..”
Prof. Martin Jacques (Former Senior Fellow at the Department of Politics and International Studies at Cambridge University) indicated in his speech that as China is so different from the West, China's rise has been, for a long time, underplayed, not really understood, and distorted in all sorts of ways in the West.Prof. Jacques reckoned that it would still be “very challenging” for China and the U.S. to overcome the misunderstanding and suspicion, but the U.S. would eventually have to accept that China enjoys parity with the U.S.
When talking about whether China wants to be a superpower or “the superpower”,Prof. Jia Qingguo (Director of iGCU) suggested that although different Chinese scholars might have different views on that specific question, as far as the Chinese government is concerned, China has no intention to become a (the) superpower, if “superpower” stands for bullying others. According to Prof. Jia, if “superpower” can be taken in a more neutral sense, then the answer to the question might be different: “I think what China wants to be is a enlightened leader, who is willing to work with other countries, for achieving peace and prosperity of all.”
H.E. Abhisit Vejjajiva (Former Prime Minister of Thailand) perceived that a stronger multilateral system is urgently needed for today’s world, and it is essential for international organizations and institutions to reform themselves as well as to reflect the changing balance of power. He suggested that more platforms need to be provided for the U.S. and China to communicate with each other, enabling mutual understanding between the two.
Dr.Kishore Mahbubani (Distinguished Fellow of Asia Research Institute at the National University of Singapore) has a quite pessimistic but realistic view of China-U.S. relations. He reckonedthat what China wants is simply to be respected again as one of the most successful civilizations in the world, but unfortunately, it has been seen as a threat by the U.S.Dr.Kishore Mahbubanihas a quite pessiistic but realistic view of the prospect of China-U.S. relationsand proposed that theworld might have to get ready for “a massive geopolitical contend” in the coming decade. He further suggested that the world has to make adjustments and make space for China, India, and the rest of Asia, and enabling the creation of new balance between Asia and the west.
Prof. Oystein Tunsjo (Professor and Director of the Asia Program of Norwegian Defence University) first suggested that it is both understandable that China wants to reestablish its position as the dominating power in its region, and that the United States would seek to prevent China from doing so.Prof.Tunsjobelievesthat the discussion of whether China wants to be a superpower does not really matter, for both China and the U.S. are in fact the two most powerful states in the world today. Nevertheless, Prof. Tunsjo conceives that the new “Cold War” is very much unlikely, as the new superpower rivalry in the 21st century will be very different from the 20th century. One of the major reasons for that would be the geopolitics (economic interdependence, ideology, technological development, institutions) at the present day.
Moving on to the second session of the conference, scholars shared their viewpoints on “the next twenty years of developing countries”.
Agreeing with Prof. Jia,Prof. Zhang Chuanjie (Professor and Deputy Director of the Center for U.S.-China relations at Tsinghua University) also believes that China’s rise is not aimed at undermining the existing international order, and China has never been seeking for “dominance”.In his speech, the importanceof multilateral collaboration cooperation has been stressedand it is proposed thatonly when international collaborate collaboration are strengthened, global problems like climate change can be solved.
H.E. DjoomartOtorbaev (Former Prime Minister of Kyrgyzstan and Visiting Fellow at iGCU) reckoned that concerning the global situation today, the world is urgently in need of ‘leadership’ and China could have the power to take that leadership in reshaping the world. H.E. Otorbaev proposed that from the perspective of Kyrgyzstan, considering its proximity to China, Kyrgyzstan would like China to take a more active role in Central Asia, and strengthencooperation with the Central Asian countriesin high-tech industries.
H.E. Nabil Fahmy (former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Egypt) suggested that developing countries with the support from China will need to look at a rebalancing of world order. It's time to go towards a collective balance of interest and to understand the collective common good. Developing countries need to get engaged in a world community and speak out on how to look towards the future. While developing countries are having significant economic growth, Dr. Fahmy emphasized on the importance for emerging economies to have a higher value-added share in the production line. He added that the emerging economies do not wish to stick with the role of raw material providers forever, and believes that China can help the developing countries significantly in industry upgrading. Moreover, Dr. Fahmy stressed that developing countries need to take their own regional conflicts in a more constructive and aggressive fashion rather than let the conflicts be the priority of major powers.
Dr.Kishore Mahbubani (Distinguished Fellow of Asia Research Institute at the National University of Singapore and Former President of the UN Security Council) raised that developing countries want more high-quality investment from China, and China is both capable and willing to do so. Unfortunately, people in Washington DC see it as a zero-sum game, and consider taking Chinese investment as taking the side against the United States. Thus, small and middle powers like Egypt, Kirgizstan, and Singapore, must explain to the United States, that when they call for investment from China, they are not taking a side in the U.S.-China contest, but to help support their growth and development of their own country. Dr. Mahbubani points out that emerging economies want to have good economic relations with both U.S. and China, and befriend with both. He also added that, if all 140 members of the BRI make this clear to the U.S., it will help to avoid a hot conflict between China and the U.S.
During the Q&A session, the panels answered three intriguing questions from the floor.
1.What is the role of regional organizations comprised of developing countries?
H.E.Nabil Fahmy: Especially for developing countries, they need to value regional cooperation and organizations. They need to take regional problems as priorities and solve their problems within and by their regions as much as they can.
Dr.Kishore Mahbubani: In the 21stcentury, the three main engine for economic growth of the world will be the new CIA: China, India and ASEAN. The new CIA will also play an important role in shaping regional and world order, and ASEAN as a regional organization plays a significant role.
2.How could developing countries make themselves clear that they are not taking side between US and China, and that China is not in favor of war but wants a peaceful rise?
H.E.Nabil Fahmysuggested that, it’s not a matter of how developing countries should make their stance clear. Instead, China has to explain itself more as the country grows. If China does not make any explanation, a vacuum will be created for those who criticize China. Explanations will help China generate more support for stakeholders.
H.E. Djoomart Otorbaev: Communication plays an immensely important role in building soft power in the modern world. China must pay special attention on the state level of making itself attractive to the people around the world through making use of its unique history and unique culture. The future great powers should not only be defined by their economic or military power, but by attractiveness to other people. Who wins the soft power game will be the winner of future global competition.
To watch the program, please go to:https://www.cgtn.com/tv/replay?id=deGEIA
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