Power, competition, and cooperation

Based on your extensive professional knowledge of Sino-American relations, what do you expect from the new US administration?

Judging from Mr. Trump’s behavior during his last term in office, what he has said on China since then and his recently proposed personnel appointments, the second-term Trump administration’s foreign policy is likely to be unilateralist, protectionist, and transactional. Such policy orientations would undermine multilateral cooperation, weaken the existing international institutions, and enhance a power-based world order as opposed to rule-based world order. Such a policy will also escalate conflict and confrontation with China on trade, high tech, people to people exchange, Taiwan and other issues.

The US sees China as a competitor who wants to take the hegemonic role away from it, while China talks about a multipolar world order. Is there still a chance for the US to maintain the status quo, or is the transformation of world order irreversible?

It all depends on what is the status quo. If the status quo means that the US dominance. It is up to the US to maintain it. This requires the US to do better both in hard power and in soft power. If the US can do it, no country can weaken US dominance. If the US cannot do it, no country can help it to avoid its decline. The US still has a chance to maintain its dominance through domestic reforms. However, chances are that it may not be able to do it. This is because it is too much trapped in a quagmire of conflicting interests, legalistic restraints, and political infighting. That explains why it cannot deal with many domestic problems ranging from drugs to guns and from infrastructure building to excessive political correctness. If the US declines, the world will end up a multipolar one. History shows that no country can maintain its dominance forever. It is a matter of time and a question of when and how it happens. The US definite has a chance to prolong its dominance if it does the right things. However, given what is happening in recent years, it is less and less likely that the US can do it.

How do you see the areas in which coordination between the two powers, China and the USA is essential?

There are many areas China and the US should and can cooperate in the interest of both countries, such as promotion of free trade, joint development of technology, coordination of macroeconomic policy, fighting drug trafficking, coping with AI challenges, containing climate change, preparing for the outbreak of another pandemic, etc. However, for various reasons, cooperation and even dialogue between the two countries were suspended during the first Trump Administration. After Biden came in, dialogue and cooperation on some issues were restored such as dialogues on avoiding military conflicts because of accidents, restrictions on chemical precursors and equipment used to make fentanyl, and promotion of measures to reverse climate change. Trump’s second term threatens to overturn such cooperation. Of course, no matter what, the two countries have no choice but to cooperate on some issues out of their respective interests, for example, no use of nuclear weapons and no accidental war between the two countries.

Do you see a chance for a G2 partnership which is proposed by many experts?

They have every reason to develop such a partnership. The world has been suffering because such a partnership is not in place. Unfortunately, the US China policy has already changed from engagement to competition; the Republicans are generally taking a tougher position than the democrats; and they just won the White House. Therefore, in the foreseeable future, it is highly unlikely for China and the US develop a partnership.

How do you assess the outcome of the BRICS summit in October?

I think it is a great success given the background of rising unilateralism, ideological competition, and military confrontation in the world. The BRICS has played a useful role in promoting understanding and cooperation between member states. As a result, five more states officially joined it last year and more than thirty countries have indicated their willingness to join it. Against this background, the BRICS is bound to play an even larger role in maintaining international peace and stability, combating poverty, facilitating green development, and addressing various other global challenges. Of course, BRICS also faces many challenges such as development of a more clearly defined shared vision for the world, better coordination of actions among member states, and more cooperation to address regional and global challenges such as early ending of the Russia-Ukraine war and dealing with the poverty issue. I believe that through concerted efforts of the BRICS countries, the world can be a much better place.

More generally, what are China's expectations of BRICS and the SCO?

China hopes that the BRICS and the SCO can help promote peace, stability, green development, and mutual understanding among member states. China also hopes that the two organizations would help develop a habit of multilateral cooperation on the basis mutual respect and mutual benefits to address the various challenges the world is facing among member states. In China’s efforts to reach these goals, China has tried to settle and manage border disputes through peaceful negotiation and consultation. It has tried to work with other countries to develop infrastructure projects to increase connectivity. It join other member states to develop mechanisms of consultation on various issues and at different levels of government.

How do you see Hungary's role in the emerging new world order, the connectivity policy and its ambition to become a keystone state, as the Hungarian Prime Minister’s Political Director, Balázs Orbán wrote in his latest book?

Hungary’s role in the emerging new world order has great potential. As a country that is culturally and geographically situates between Asia and Europe, it can act as a bridge to promote cooperation and integration of the two continents. If it is successful, it can make a great contribution to re-shape the geo-economic and geopolitical landscape of the forthcoming world order. To be successful in this regard requires not only the smart diplomacy on the part of Hungry but also willingness on the part of the major geopolitical players to engage with each other and willingness of the US to tolerate this development. Difficult as it is, it is the right thing to do at a right time. Given the changing geo-economic and geopolitical developments, it is not inconceivable that the major players of Eurasia may find it in their interests to engage in such an enterprise.

The author is deputy editor-in chief of Eurasia

source:Power, competition, and cooperation - Eurasia