Gao Dan, Wang Shuang, and Prof. Wang Dong analyze U.S. economic and trade policy toward China in the “Trump 2.0” era, arguing that tariffs, techno-strategic control, and supply chain restructuring form a coherent strategy of competitive rebalancing, to which China should respond with “bottom-line thinking” and flexible policy adaptation.
Gao Dan, Distinguished Associate Research Fellow, School of International Studies, Peking University.
Wang Shuang, PhD Candidate, School of International Relations and Public Affairs (SIRPA), Fudan University, and Research Assistant, Institute for Global Cooperation and Understanding (iGCU), Peking University.
Professor Wang Dong, Professor at the School of International Studies, Peking University, and Executive Director of the Institute for Global Cooperation and Understanding (iGCU), Peking University.
Gao Dan, Wang Shuang, and Prof. Wang Dong examine the United States’ economic and trade policy toward China during the “Trump 2.0” era against the backdrop of a transforming global economic order. This article finds that tariffs remain the central instrument the Trump administration utilizes to achieve “trade balance.” In the technology domain, a key underlying logic lies in balancing high-tech export controls with asymmetric interdependence. Promoting “decoupling” from China in critical industrial and supply chains constitutes a priority for U.S. “economic security.”
In addition, embedding “poison pill clauses” in bilateral trade agreements represents a unilateral attempt by the U.S. to build exclusive trade networks. Hence, beyond tariff wars, currency and financial feuds may emerge as new forms of economic statecraft in the future.
In response, China should adopt a strategy that combines “bottom-line thinking” with flexible policy adaptation. In the face of U.S. restrictions on entrepot trade, China should deepen multilateral cooperation. At the same time, in anticipation of potential currency and financial conflicts, it should actively advance the internationalization of the Renminbi and strengthen systems for identifying and preventing financial risks.
Overall, development is widely regarded as a foundational factor in resolving many of today’s challenges. While further leveraging the domestic market, China should also advance institutional opening-up and enhance economic resilience by better coordinating its comparative advantages.
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