Can China and the United States avoid the Thucydides Trap and redefine major-power relations in an era of global uncertainty? Why does head-of-state diplomacy matter at a critical moment for #China-#US ties? And what role could AI governance, trade and people-to-people exchanges play in stabilizing bilateral relations?
Li Cheng, founding director of the Center on Contemporary China and the World at the University of Hong Kong and former director of the John L. Thornton China Center at Brookings, shares his insights in an exclusive interview with China Newsweek.
Full interview via Substack link below:
https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/YCWagxW1If0LBwLAkrakZw
Chinese President Xi Jinping held talks with visiting US President Donald Trump at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on May 14. The meeting lasted for more than two hours and fifteen minutes.
President Xi noted that amid accelerating global transformations unseen in a century and a rapidly changing international landscape, the world is asking whether China and the United States can avoid the Thucydides Trap and pioneer a new model of major-country relations; whether the two countries can jointly address global challenges and inject greater stability into the world; and whether they can work for the well-being of their peoples and the future of humanity to create a brighter future for bilateral relations. These, President Xi said, are questions posed by history, by the world and by the people, and are also the defining questions of the times that leaders of major countries must answer together.
President Xi said he is willing to work with President Trump to steer the giant ship of China-US relations in the right direction and make 2026 a historic and symbolic year that builds on the past and opens a new future for bilateral ties.
President Xi emphasized that China remains committed to the stable, healthy and sustainable development of China-US relations. He and Trump agreed to establish a “constructive strategic stability relationship” as the new positioning of bilateral ties, which would provide strategic guidance for China-US relations over the next three years and beyond. President Xi said such a framework should embody positive stability centered on cooperation, healthy stability with manageable competition, normalized stability with controllable differences, and lasting stability oriented toward peace.
After nine years, Trump once again visited China as President of the United States. He said he is willing to strengthen communication and cooperation with Xi, properly manage differences, and open what he described as “the best US-China relationship in history.”
“Trump is more confident, more experienced, more authoritative and more eager to achieve concrete accomplishments in his second presidential term. This may make him less influenced by hawkish voices when making China-related decisions, which is a favorable factor for China,” Li Cheng, professor at the University of Hong Kong and founding director of the Center on Contemporary China and the World, told China Newsweek.
Li is a long-time observer, researcher and participant in China-US relations. He previously served as director of the John L. Thornton China Center at the Brookings Institution. On May 13, Li gave an exclusive interview to China Newsweek on the significance of the latest China-US summit and the future of bilateral relations.
“If the problems in China-US relations are resolved through the kind of war implied by the ‘Thucydides Trap,’ the consequences could be devastating for all humanity,” Li said. “We should not view major-country relations through a fatalistic lens, but instead actively seek pathways toward peaceful coexistence.”
Head-of-state diplomacy prevents a “vertical fall”in relations
China Newsweek: At this particular historical moment, what is the significance of this summit meeting for China-US relations?
Li Cheng: For both China and the United States, the greatest value of this summit lies in preventing bilateral relations from entering a “vertical free fall.” At the same time, the current moment also presents an opportunity for the two sides to reach practical and implementable consensus.
Before his passing, Dr. Henry Kissinger told me many times that when Chinese and American leaders meet, the two sides often focus on different priorities. The United States tends to focus on specific issues, while China places greater emphasis on strategic frameworks.
In this meeting, Trump is concerned about tariffs, trade, regional conflicts and other concrete issues. For Chinese leaders, while these matters are certainly important, the more fundamental issue is strategic positioning — namely, whether the United States sees China as a friend, partner, rival or enemy.
Over the past several decades, Trump may be the US president who has referred to China as a “friend” most frequently. He has repeatedly expressed respect for Chinese leaders. Regardless of how sincere such statements may be, this attitude is clearly different from that of the Biden administration and some hawkish figures surrounding Trump himself, who define China primarily as America’s greatest “enemy” or “adversary.” Trump rarely frames China policy through ideological confrontation.
On certain regional security issues, both sides also have incentives to cooperate. Trump currently faces significant difficulties regarding Iran. He failed to achieve regime change in Iran or destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities, and is now trying to promote the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Ironically, before the US strikes on Iran, the Strait had already remained open. This unresolved issue poses a considerable challenge for Trump. He needs China’s assistance, and China is also willing to play a constructive role.
Economic and trade issues are another major area. Following the leaders’ Busan meeting, the United States introduced new restrictive measures in sectors such as shipping and shipbuilding, prompting China to adopt targeted countermeasures. Now both sides are seeking new consensus. I believe there may be fresh progress on issues including trade, tariffs, rare earths, supply chains, the legitimate rights of Chinese companies operating in the United States, US exports of agricultural products and energy to China, as well as bilateral investment.
China Newsweek: Trump is often described as unpredictable and volatile. How should we assess the degree of certainty he brings to China-US relations?
Li Cheng: Trump does indeed possess strong unpredictability and is a deeply paradoxical leader. At times he appears adept at manipulating others and foreign countries, yet on major issues such as Iran, he can also be influenced by external actors like Israel.
Overall, however, Trump is not strongly ideological. He is an extremely political figure with sharp political instincts. He is not bound by rigid commitments or dogma. On some issues that matter greatly to China, he may adopt more pragmatic positions than other US presidents.
His campaign slogan, “Make America Great Again,” itself reflects the belief that the United States is no longer as dominant as before. Trump has long viewed China as a powerful country and approaches China with a certain degree of respect and caution. For China, this is both a challenge and an opportunity.
More importantly, head-of-state diplomacy itself provides a degree of certainty in China-US relations. A single summit cannot resolve the structural contradictions between the two countries. But we must negotiate with the leaders currently in power, because whether one likes them or not, they are the people shaping policy direction.
Most importantly, while a summit meeting cannot produce a 180-degree turnaround in bilateral relations, it can prevent relations from entering a “vertical free fall.” It keeps the channels of communication and dialogue open and allows cooperation in trade, education, culture and other fields to continue. Without this safeguard, bilateral relations could deteriorate much more rapidly. That is why this summit is extremely valuable and meaningful.
“China and the United States should not regard each other as enemies”
China Newsweek: Economic and trade relations have long been viewed as the ballast stabilizing China-US ties. Yet in recent years, some argue that trade has instead become a trigger for tensions due to escalating tariff disputes. Why has this happened?
Li Cheng: This trend began during Trump’s first presidential term and is closely tied to America’s domestic political and economic conditions.
Many Chinese may find it difficult to understand that “globalization” has become a negative term in the United States. Both China and the United States benefited from globalization, but the internal distribution of benefits differed dramatically.
In China, all income groups benefited from globalization. Even the lowest-income groups saw approximately 200 percent growth since the 1980s. In contrast, because of America’s distribution mechanisms, only the wealthiest 20 percent benefited significantly from globalization-driven growth.
The income of American blue-collar male workers has essentially stagnated since the 1970s. By 2023, the wealth held by the richest 1 percent of Americans exceeded that of the entire middle class combined. This scale of inequality is unprecedented in US history.
Trump has tried to address this situation through tariffs. If one reviews his career from businessman to politician, despite his unpredictability, two positions have remained consistent: conservative immigration policies and support for tariffs. He has even described tariffs as “the most beautiful word in the dictionary.”
The tariff war is not directed solely at China but at the entire world, including America’s allies. However, because China is one of America’s largest trading partners and maintains a substantial trade surplus, tariffs against China appear especially prominent.
In reality, America’s widening wealth gap stems mainly from its own domestic structural problems rather than changes in the global economic landscape. Many American economists do not believe tariffs are the solution. Recently, the US Supreme Court ruled Trump’s global tariff policies unconstitutional, reflecting widespread reservations among political and business circles.
Nevertheless, Trump’s policies resonate strongly with key voter groups, particularly white male and lower-middle-class voters. These groups form the foundation of his political base. Even after taking office, Biden did not truly reverse the tariffs imposed during Trump’s first term, which reflects how many Americans share Trump’s views on tariffs.
Trade and economic ties remain the ballast of China-US relations because they represent the convergence of interests. As the saying goes, “When trade stops, war may begin.” Unfortunately, American public understanding of this issue remains unclear, and Washington’s domestic political agenda has increasingly shaped its perception of China.
China Newsweek: How can this issue ultimately be addressed?
Li Cheng: America’s internal structural contradictions will take time to resolve, but this does not mean China and the United States cannot cooperate and achieve mutual benefit now.
I believe China should continue emphasizing inclusive growth and expanding the overall economic pie. In fact, China’s development creates many opportunities for the United States. The two economies remain highly complementary, especially in agriculture, energy and natural gas.
One important goal of Trump’s visit is to promote mutual investment. The American business delegation accompanying him includes representatives from technology, finance, aviation and agriculture, all of which are highly meaningful.
We must also jointly identify new engines of growth. Infrastructure investment is a key direction. Trump’s background as a real estate developer means he fully understands China’s strengths in construction, manufacturing and infrastructure development.
Through sustained exchanges and interactions, the two countries can gradually reshape their perceptions of one another. China does not wish to lose the US market, and the United States should recognize that China’s rapid development in many areas represents not only a challenge but also a valuable opportunity for American companies.
China Newsweek: The possible establishment of a bilateral AI consultation framework between China and the United States has also become a major focus of international attention. What are your expectations?
Li Cheng: AI governance has become an increasingly important topic in recent China-US summit meetings, and the international community hopes both countries can reach consensus on this issue.
During the Biden administration, Chinese and US leaders reached important consensus that decisions regarding the use of nuclear weapons should remain under human control.
The significance of a bilateral AI consultation framework lies in recognizing that technological competition between China and the United States will continue for a long time, but this does not mean the two countries are destined to confront each other over AI governance.
An uncontrolled AI crisis would be a disaster not only for China and the United States but for all humanity. That is the real threat we face. We therefore need broader imagination and a recognition that the leading AI powers are also the countries most vulnerable to AI risks. China and the United States must strengthen communication, build consensus and establish clear rules.
I also hope cooperation on AI governance can evolve into a more fundamental conceptual shift: China and the United States should not regard each other as enemies. The real enemies are the common challenges facing humanity, including AI risks, climate change, terrorism, nuclear proliferation, global inequality and pandemics.
Unfortunately, Trump is not deeply interested in some of these issues. But his attitude toward AI is somewhat different. Many of his business associates are involved in AI development. Trump also prides himself on being capable of making “big deals.” Although he may not always think things through carefully, he can sometimes act impulsively, and such improvisation can occasionally produce positive outcomes. China should seize this opportunity.
The two countries must avoid the “Thucydides Trap”
China Newsweek: You have long participated in Track 1.5 and Track 2 dialogues between China and the United States. How do you assess the current state of people-to-people and cultural exchanges?
Li Cheng: People-to-people exchanges are critically important for China-US relations. Bilateral ties are not only relations between states, but also relations between peoples.
At present, however, cultural and educational exchanges between China and the United States are far from satisfactory. Despite the global rise of interest in Chinese language learning, only about 28,000 American students are currently studying Chinese in schools, and the number of American students studying in China remains relatively small.
President Xi’s “50,000 in Five Years” initiative proposed in November 2023 — inviting 50,000 young Americans to China for exchange and study over five years — is therefore extremely important.
At the same time, there are encouraging signs. Mainstream US polling shows that Americans under the age of 29 hold significantly more favorable views toward China than older generations, with approval levels 15 to 30 percentage points higher.
Some people attribute this to the popularity of TikTok, but polling data showed this trend even before TikTok became widespread.
I believe this is partly because younger Americans do not carry the historical burdens of the Cold War. In addition, many American university students interact directly with Chinese students on campus. The China they see firsthand differs from the demonized image often portrayed in traditional American discourse.
As long as exchanges continue and the doors remain open, public perceptions between the two peoples are unlikely to deteriorate into truly dangerous extremes.
Trump himself has also played a role in this regard. According to US media reports, the White House political team discussed a proposal in 2018 to ban Chinese students from studying in the United States, but Trump rejected it. Had such a measure been adopted, it would have caused enormous damage to bilateral relations.
Currently, many members of the US Congress are attempting to restrict or even prohibit scientific and academic exchanges between China and the United States, including scholar visits and student exchanges. Yet Trump has repeatedly expressed support for Chinese students studying in America. His current visit to China will naturally send a positive signal.
People in the United States may ask: if the President himself visits China, why can’t we? Other countries may also conclude that if the United States seeks to improve and develop relations with China, they should do the same.
China Newsweek: Although younger Americans tend to view China more positively, many people worry that a new generation of American “China experts” appears less friendly toward China than earlier generations of scholars. Why is this happening?
Li Cheng: This contrast does indeed exist. Younger Americans may hold more positive views of China overall, but many younger figures active in academia and policymaking circles are known for taking hardline or even anti-China positions.
Part of this is a process of self-selection. In Washington’s current political atmosphere, people who demonstrate toughness toward China are often more likely to advance professionally.
Another factor is changes in America’s educational structure. Older China experts such as J. Stapleton Roy and Chas Freeman possessed deep knowledge of Chinese culture and spoke fluent Chinese. By contrast, many younger scholars have been heavily influenced by “America First” ideology and the “end of history” mentality while growing up within increasingly quantitative educational systems.
Over the past three decades, social sciences in the United States have undergone profound transformation: economics has become mathematics, and political science has become statistics. This emphasis on quantitative methods at the expense of humanities education has weakened language learning and cultural understanding, making it difficult to genuinely understand Chinese society and thought.
Changing this situation will require patience. Different groups of “unfriendly” people have different motivations. Some understand China relatively well but fear China’s rise. Others misunderstand China due to lack of knowledge. Still others are influenced by ideological biases that demonize China.
The key is ensuring that everyone understands one basic reality: if China-US relations continue deteriorating and eventually slide into conflict, there will be no winners.
I often recall conversations with Henry Kissinger in his later years. He told me that throughout modern history, it has been rare for two countries of equal strength to confront each other as peers. Such a situation does not inevitably lead to the “Thucydides Trap.” On the contrary, long-term peaceful coexistence and common development are entirely possible.
In the age of intelligent warfare, it is difficult to imagine real “winners” or “losers” in a war between China and the United States. If the problems between the two countries are resolved through war, as implied by the “Thucydides Trap,” the consequences would likely be catastrophic for all humanity.
In short, we should not approach major-country relations through fatalism. We should actively seek pathways toward peaceful coexistence.
Reposted with the author's permission
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