Professor Jia Qingguo was interviewed by Yicai at the 2026 FutureChina Global Forum, discussing the key factors shaping the US midterm elections, shifts in US-alliance relations, and the Trump administration’s approach to AI safety, while arguing that US-alliance relations are unlikely to fully return to their previous pattern.
With less than a month to go before the 2026 US midterm elections, how should we assess the electoral outlook and its political implications?
At the 2026 FutureChina Global Forum (FCGF), hosted by Business China in Singapore, Yicai interviewed Jia Qingguo, a member of the Standing Committee of the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), former dean of Peking University’s School of International Studies, and a professor at Peking University.
Jia said that developments in the US-Israel-Iran conflict and rising prices in the United States resulting from the spillover effects of the conflict in the Middle East were important factors shaping the midterm election outlook. Historically, US midterm elections have often resulted in the party in power losing control of either the Senate or the House of Representatives.
Asked about the long-term implications of the Trump administration’s policies, Jia said that the US political landscape had undergone fundamental changes. Even if the Democratic Party returns to power in the future, US relations with its allies are unlikely to fully return to their previous pattern.
Yicai: The US midterm elections are now entering their final stretch. How do you assess the electoral outlook, and what are the key factors?
Jia Qingguo: Most people currently believe that the Democratic Party is likely to gain control of the House of Representatives, although the possibility of it controlling both chambers cannot be ruled out.
There are two main factors influencing the outcome. The first is when the US-Israel-Iran conflict will end. The second is the impact on voters’ perceptions of rising prices caused by the spillover of the conflict in the Middle East, particularly persistently high oil prices. Domestic political maneuvering and media narratives in the United States will also have some influence.
Historically, US midterm elections have often resulted in the party in power losing control of either the Senate or the House of Representatives. The key question this time is whether the Republican Party will lose control of both chambers.
Yicai: During the current administration, US alliances have come under renewed strain. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, for instance, has bluntly stated that “the old order has broken” and even said that he has considered “extreme tail risks,” such as a US invasion. How has the US alliance system changed during this administration?
Jia Qingguo: During Trump’s first term, US allies were generally shocked and frustrated. They had not expected the United States to treat its allies in this way. At the time, however, many viewed the Trump administration as an accidental and temporary political phenomenon and hoped that the next US administration would return the country to its previous course.
Consequently, when former US President Joe Biden was elected, America’s allies were greatly encouraged. They believed that US-alliance relations could be repaired and that the Western world could once again unite.
However, Trump’s second election victory and the series of policy measures adopted by his administration dealt an even greater blow to US allies. This fundamentally changed their perceptions of the future of US-alliance relations: they no longer regarded the United States as a reliable ally.
In response to this reality, US allies have begun adjusting their strategies and adopting a hedging approach. On the one hand, they still hope to maintain and strengthen their alliances with the United States. On the other hand, they must also plan ahead and explore alternative ways to safeguard their own security. These allies are currently in the midst of this strategic adjustment to diversify their risks.
Yicai: Recently, executives at several leading US artificial intelligence companies have issued security warnings about the rapid improvement of AI model capabilities. The Trump administration and Republican lawmakers, however, have largely dismissed these concerns. What approach is the US government taking to AI safety governance?
Jia Qingguo: Until recently, the US government had not paid much attention to AI safety. It believed that the risks AI posed to humanity had been exaggerated. However, I believe this trend is beginning to change. As AI continues to develop, I expect the Trump administration to pay increasing attention to AI safety and ethical issues.
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