At the noon of October 27, 2014, at the invitation of Kim Koo Forum, Peking University American Studies Center, and theInstitute for Global Cooperation and Understanding, Peking University (iGCU), Dr. Thomas Fingar, an Oksenberg-Rohle distinguished fellow of the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University, visited the School of International Studies and had a discussion with our teachers and students on the topic ofAmerican Strategists' View on China' s relations with South Asia and Central Asia. Yu Tiejun, Han Hua, Qian Xuemei, Wang Dong, Jie Dalei, Wu Xiangning and other teachers, as well as more than ten master students, doctoral students, and postdoctors from the School of International Studies participated in the discussion.
Dr. Fingar is a well-known American strategist and scholar, who has long served in the US Department of State as US Assistant Secretary of State, Chief Director of National Intelligence Analysis and Chairman of the National Intelligence Council. During the discussion, he first introduced the China and the World research project he hosted at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, and hoped the participating teachers and students could provide comments and suggestions on the project. Dr. Fingar said the project mainly studies China' s exchanges and interactions with various regions of the world since the reform and opening up in 1978. The basic premise is that all bilateral and multilateral relations shall be regarded similarly as a collection of various vectors in mathematics, influenced by such factors as the interests, national goals, actions and reactions of all parties.Therefore, unlike previous research projects, the China and the World research project integrates multiple perspectives of experts on Chinese and other regional issues at the same time, striving to present a panorama of China interacting with various regions in the world.On this premise, Dr. Fingar believes that China has followed a specific order while developing its relations with different regions after 1978. China first chose to develop relations with the United States, Japan, and other developed countries, and then Southeast Asia, Russia, South Asia, Central Asia, Africa, Latin America, etc.The basic assumption of the project is that the order of developing these relations has reflected China' s diverse prior needs at different development stages after opening up.These needs can be summarized as two factors, security and development. China has never ignored the importance of the security factor. Even though China usually prioritizes development after the reform and opening up, it believes all along that development is impossible if the security needs cannot be met.To determine the attributes of the needs between China and a certain region, it is necessary to pay attention to geographical factors. That is because geographical factors contain specific historical and cultural relations, and are important standards to consider security threats. According to Dr. Fingar, the ultimate goal of the project is to conduct historical empirical research based on above premises and assumptions, and to discover and understand the interaction mode between China and the rest of the world.At present, the project has completed its first phase research on the interaction between China and North America, and Southeast Asia as well. The second phase research is under way for the time being, focusing on China' s relationship development with South Asia and Central Asia.
Subsequently, Dr. Fingar briefly reviewed the development of China' s relations with South Asia and Central Asia, and elaborated on his research findings.He pointed out that the development of China' s relations with South Asia and Central Asia has experienced three stages. As far as South Asia is concerned, from 1978 to 1990, due to the alliance between India and the Soviet Union as well as the relatively closed economy of India, security was the main factor affecting the relationship between China and South Asia. China took a defensive attitude towards the region with extremely limited participation. From 1991 to 2001, with the disintegration of Indo-Soviet Alliance as well as the economic opening up of India and small countries in the region, China no longer viewed India as a security threat, even though India tended to do the opposite. The development factor is imposing an increasingly obvious impact on China' s relations with South Asia during this period. After 2001, the US intervened in Afghanistan and its surrounding areas, so China had to consider the existence of the US when dealing with its relations with South Asian countries.Pakistan is more important to China, while India and small countries in the region have strengthened their ties with China at least at the economic level. China' s infrastructure construction in South Asia has also brought South Asian countries even closer.In terms of Central Asia, from 1978 to 1990, Central Asian countries were part of the Soviet Union and viewed China as a security threat.After the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, China and Central Asian countries conducted border negotiations for their own security considerations. The impact of economic development needs on bilateral relations during that period was not obvious. After 2001, security needs and economic needs have risen simultaneously. China and Central Asia have responded to the threats of terrorism and separatism. Their way of maintaining stability in border areas is to strengthen border trade and promote the development and prosperity in the border areas.In addition, China' s demand for energy in Central Asia began to grow.Based on the above historical analysis, Dr. Fingar summed up five points: (1) the disintegration of the Soviet Union was the key factor in changing the political pattern and economic opportunities of China’s relations with South Asia and Central Asia; (2) the shift from a relatively closed economy to an open one in India has strengthened economic relations between regions; (3) small countries in the region have begun to take positions similar to that of Pakistan, and regard China as the object of balancing and reducing their dependence on India; (4) China' s own development has expanded the regional market, and its regional investment has also made regional countries more closely linked; (5) opening up has always been a regional theme.
In the next discussion, teachers and students raised issues of the diversity, security and development of countries in Central Asia, the nature of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and the development prospects of India, as well as putting forward suggestions and opinions regarding the "China and the World" project from various perspectives. Dr. Fingar responded in depth one by one. This is an important academic exchange activity between the School of International Studies and Stanford University; it promotes mutual communication and understanding, and lays a foundation for further cooperation between both sides in the future.
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