[Author] Qi Haotian
[Publisher and date] Chinese Journal of European Studies, Sixth Issue, 2018
[Abstract] This paper examines the direction of European defense autonomy and integration from the perspective of security supply and demand through the analysis of military capabilities, potentials and military power contrasts among the stakeholders of European security issues at the operational level. In recent years, some arguments suggest that European defense has an opportunity to develop. At the same time, we also need to see that European defense autonomy and integration are still in a state of oscillation and indecision. This is mainly due to two reasons: first, the European defense security supply is the result of rational choice in response to demand, the weak substitutability of European and American defense and the limited nature of the security threat caused by the lack of European defense development momentum; second, although Europe has a clear will of defense autonomy and integration, has a high quality military potential, but its political capacity is not enough to support the realization of military potential. In the absence of major external shocks or "black swan" events, Europe is unable to take full advantage of the current window of opportunity for defense autonomy and integration.
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