Introduction: On April 14, local time, U.S. President Joe Biden officially announced the complete withdrawal of the remaining 2,500 U.S. troops from Afghanistan on September 11, 2021, the 20th anniversary of the September 11 attacks, ending the long war that has lasted 20 years. Will the U.S. be able to withdraw its troops as promised? What changes will this withdrawal bring to the situation in Afghanistan and the Middle East? The Observer interviewed Yu Hongjun, former Chinese Ambassador to Uzbekistan, former Vice Minister of the Foreign Liaison Department of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, Vice President of the Chinese People's Association for Peace and Disarmament, and a special expert of China Forum. The following is the full text of the interview.
Observer: The U.S. announced the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan, what is the current situation of the military presence in Afghanistan? What are the attitudes of the various forces in Afghanistan?
Yu Hongjun: According to statistics, there are about 2,500 U.S. troops in Afghanistan, accounting for a quarter of the total number of NATO troops in Afghanistan, which means that NATO currently has more than 10,000 armed personnel in Afghanistan.
The war in Afghanistan has been going on for twenty years, and all parties are tired of fighting and are war-weary. No one can change the situation in Afghanistan completely according to their will, so a peaceful solution is the only way out, and is also the expectation of the international community on Afghanistan.
The U.S. is under great pressure in this situation, and the Obama period has already birthed the idea of withdrawal, but it failed to materialize because of various reasons. Trump also made a statement, and now Biden repeatedly deliberated, weighed again and again, and finally decided to formally withdraw the troops before September 11 this year, and complete the task of withdrawal.
In fact, the withdrawal began on May 1, to September 11, which is about 130 days, the withdrawal of not only U.S. troops, but also NATO forces. The U.S. and NATO also coordinated, all parties should be said to have carried out a full argument and preparation, I think this withdrawal will be officially on the agenda, no longer possible to make a mess.
Now see the situation, the Afghan domestic parties, first of all, the Ghani government, the opposition forces Taliban, the situation is unclear Al Qaeda, Islamic State and other parties to the withdrawal of U.S. and NATO military forces is welcome, but the starting point and ideas are not the same.
For the Ghani government, of course, it wants to truly realize the political principle of "Arabs-led and Arabs-owned. After the withdrawal of the U.S. and NATO, "Afghan-led and Afghan-owned" can really become a reality, or the Ghani government can really become the organizer and leader of the development process in Afghanistan.
The Taliban, of course, also want to take advantage of the withdrawal of U.S. and NATO troops to regain the center of the political stage in Afghanistan, so they also want the withdrawal of U.S. troops. This is the same as the Ghani government's position and advocacy, they both want to decide their own destiny after the withdrawal of external forces.
For Al Qaeda and ISIS, we have not seen any official statement yet, and if they welcome the withdrawal, they only want to grab the power vacuum after the withdrawal of U.S. troops to fill the regime gap and expand their power influence.
Thus, they all want the U.S. and NATO to withdraw, but each has its own agenda. The core points all want to dominate the future development process of Afghanistan according to their own will, and the Ghani government and the Taliban their claims may be more realistic.
After the withdrawal of U.S. and NATO troops, there will be some violent fluctuations and struggles among the various forces around the construction of a new regime in Afghanistan and the direction of future development, so the situation may be very unstable, and the struggle will surface after the withdrawal begins.
Observer: The situation may be extremely unstable after the withdrawal of troops in Afghanistan, so is it feasible for the U.S. and NATO coalition forces to completely withdraw on September 11? If the situation in Afghanistan deteriorates, will troops be re-dispatched?
Yu Hongjun: The U.S. announced a complete withdrawal, but I think this is conditional.
First, even if it goes well, the U.S. will leave some of its armed personnel behind to protect diplomatic personnel and facilities. The tradition of U.S. Marines guarding embassy security, coupled with the predictable instability of future conditions in Afghanistan, means that the U.S. may leave a portion of its armed personnel in Kabul.
But this is a different concept from having an armed presence, using only light weapons and a small number of guards to protect the U.S. Embassy or U.S. diplomatic facilities.
On the other hand, the United States depends on the development of the situation in Afghanistan, if it can continue to move forward steadily as expected, it is possible to basically complete the withdrawal before September 11, but if the situation is complicated and acute, or if a large-scale conflict breaks out, endangering the security of U.S. troops and NATO forces, or endangering the stability of the situation in Afghanistan after the withdrawal of U.S. and NATO troops, the possibility of the United States and NATO reconsidering the decision to withdraw troops cannot be ruled out.
Withdrawal time is also 130 days, the specific action plan is not yet seen, the withdrawal process, NATO and U.S. forces to coordinate with each other, and also with the Afghan government, the need for gradual transfer of military facilities, such as the Afghan government, but also to help the Afghan armed forces to complete the takeover.
Of course, the U.S. withdrawal will not be very smooth, the Taliban, Al Qaeda and the Islamic State may also take advantage of the opportunity to cause some problems for the United States and NATO.
The withdrawal process may be slow at first, and may gradually accelerate if it goes well. The U.S. and Afghanistan are also talking about the National Peace and Development Framework, and we have to see if the withdrawal process is smooth and see if the reaction of all parties is calm.
Observer: NATO internal disagreement on the withdrawal of troops in Afghanistan, some NATO countries fear that premature withdrawal means the failure of NATO's nearly 20 years of military operations in Afghanistan, al-Qaeda and other terrorist organizations may return, etc., how to view this issue?
Yu Hongjun: Not only NATO, but also the U.S. internal doubts and differences about whether the withdrawal of troops can achieve a real sense of peace transition, and whether Afghanistan, a country that has gone through decades of war, is on the right track.
It is not unreasonable to be worried now, because the situation in Afghanistan is too complicated. Decades of war have created too many rivalries and deep-rooted hatred.
Afghanistan is also a multi-ethnic country, the main ethnic Pashtuns only account for about 40% of the country's population, there are also Tajiks, Uzbeks, Turkmen and more than 20 other ethnic groups, this is also an important factor that Afghanistan has long been unable to achieve ethnic harmony, social stability and political harmony, so after the withdrawal of the United States and NATO, there is no guarantee that Afghanistan has entered a new stage of peaceful transition and development in history.
Now there is an optimistic estimate, and I also feel that the situation in Afghanistan is better than in the past, and there is still some progress in its development process driven by the joint efforts of the international community. The conflict within Ghani's government, as we all know, Abdullah did not accept the election results, and two presidents were inaugurated in one day, and everyone was very worried at that time, but later things were resolved peacefully, President Ghani was re-elected successfully, Abdullah became the chairman of the Supreme Council for National Reconciliation, and the conflict was eased.
In the future, after the U.S. withdraws, it may have to face new power arrangements, such as a general election or even a re-election. It is not clear whether the struggle for power will lead to electoral failure, unrest, conflict and war.
If the United States said that from the perspective of counter-terrorism, retaliation against al-Qaeda, the capture of bin Laden, then the task has long been completed.
In a sense, it can be said that the U.S. 20-year war in Afghanistan has been a complete failure. Although the U.S. retaliated against Al Qaeda and captured bin Laden, it sacrificed the lives of more than 2,000 U.S. officers and soldiers, killed a reported 3,000 U.S. military contractors, and cost the U.S. $2 trillion, a huge price to pay.
Even so, the United States has not completely eradicated the so-called international terrorism, has not eliminated the hotbeds of international terrorism, but has instead made Afghanistan more and more volatile and chaotic, and the international community more and more uneasy about the future of Afghanistan. In this sense, the U.S. military operation in Afghanistan cannot be said to be a success.
The war in Afghanistan is the longest time the United States has used troops overseas since the end of World War II. The Soviet Union entered Afghanistan at that time and fought for just 10 years, but of course it ended up with a wretched exit, heavy casualties and huge costs, and failed to achieve its strategic goals. This time, the U.S. also returned from the battlefield in Afghanistan with a bummed out, unhappy and defeated.
Observer: In response to the Afghan issue, many countries have been actively promoting talks, such as Russia and the United States, which have invited China to the Six-Party Talks and Five-Party Talks respectively. What is China's contribution and role?
Yu Hongjun: Afghanistan is an important neighbor of China, we have a common border between the two sides, China has always attached importance to the Afghan issue.
Afghanistan is also one of the first countries to establish diplomatic relations with the new China, and also the first country to solve the border problem. We solved the border problem between China and Afghanistan in 1960, which was not easy at that time, so our relationship with Afghanistan has been relatively good.
In the mid to late 70s, the changes in the domestic situation in Afghanistan made the Sino-Afghan relations more and more complicated, but we have always been concerned about the peaceful development of Afghanistan and hope that Afghanistan can have long-lasting peace and stability.
Therefore, we have also done a lot of work. For example, in the Bonn talks to solve the Afghan problem, China actively participated in and generously contributed to the post-war reconstruction of Afghanistan, providing great material and technical support, and many Chinese engineering technicians have been in Afghanistan to help with peace reconstruction and infrastructure construction.
After we proposed the "One Belt, One Road" initiative, Afghanistan also actively responded and participated, and China has made great efforts to build peace in Afghanistan.
More specifically, we have been actively participating in the ongoing Istanbul Process, the meeting of foreign ministers of relevant countries to resolve the Afghan issue, which is celebrating its 10th anniversary this year.
We have also been the host, as you may recall, of Ghani's first trip to Beijing after he was elected president, both for an official visit to seek our support and assistance, and to participate in the Beijing meeting of the Istanbul process, which we led.
In the past few years, the Istanbul Process has continued, with nine foreign ministerial meetings this year, and Foreign Minister Wang Yi participated in the ninth foreign ministerial meeting held recently. At the meeting, Foreign Minister Wang Yi put forward three proposals, the first is to maintain the current good momentum of the peace talks, the second is that the international community should work together to inject momentum into the reconstruction and development of Afghanistan, that is, to increase assistance to Afghanistan, and the third point is that counter-terrorism is an international affair, especially in the issue of counter-terrorism involving Afghanistan, we must adhere to the general direction of international cooperation.
In the fight against terrorism in Afghanistan, we cannot fight alone, we cannot engage in double standards, and we cannot take what we need. To be clear, all parties must unify their standards, coordinate their positions and cooperate.
Under the banner of counter-terrorism, certain countries are seeking the selfishness of one country and expanding the power of one country there, but they are contributing to the development of terrorism there.
Recently, our ambassador to Afghanistan, Mr. Wang Yu, issued a written statement. The first is to adhere to the fundamental direction of a political solution; the second is to adhere to the basic principle of "Afghan-led and Afghan-owned"; and the third is to adhere to the framework goal of broad inclusiveness.
These are some of the basic principles and ideas of China in promoting or participating in helping to solve the Afghan issue, which has also been recognized and supported by the Afghan Ghani government including the Taliban to some extent.
More specifically, you mentioned that the United States and Russia are leading some meetings, and China has also led the China-Pakistan-Afghanistan trilateral foreign ministers' meeting, which has been going on for several years, because Pakistan is an important party involved in the Afghan issue, and our trilateral foreign ministers have done a good job.
This foreign ministers' meeting is to promote a peaceful settlement on the one hand, and to start planning for peaceful reconstruction on the other hand, that is, the process of peaceful reconciliation should be closely integrated with peaceful development and peaceful reconstruction, so we want to include Afghanistan in the "Belt and Road" cooperation process, and we even propose to build the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, the economic corridor between China and Pakistan. Corridor, which is a world-renowned cooperation project. Of course, it is still only a concept, but only in the initial planning to do some exploratory work, if Afghanistan achieves peace and stability in the future, to achieve long-term peace and security, these are possible.
In addition, we signed the Treaty of Good Neighborliness, Friendship and Cooperation with Afghanistan in 2006, and this year marks the 15th anniversary. We will take advantage of this important historical moment to further enhance China-Afghanistan relations and promote the peaceful development of Afghanistan, and also take advantage of such a new development as the withdrawal of U.S. and NATO troops to enhance the level of our strategic partnership.
The strategic partnership between China and Afghanistan was formed in 2012, and next year will mark another 10 years. Within the framework of the SCO, there is an SCO Contact Group on Afghanistan, and we on the Chinese side have made great efforts and done a lot of work to establish and operate this group, so China has done a lot to promote the peace process in Afghanistan.
Observer: You talked about the peaceful reconstruction of Afghanistan, after Afghan President Ghani rejected the U.S. proposal for an interim government against the Afghan government and the Taliban, and called for early presidential elections. Will the Afghan government reconcile with the Taliban? How will Afghanistan develop?
Yu Hongjun: After the withdrawal of the United States and NATO from Afghanistan, Afghanistan faces several problems in politics, economy and security.
First of all, the regime has to be reorganized, and an important prerequisite for reorganization is to achieve political reconciliation, and the two sides of reconciliation are mainly the Ghani government and the Taliban regime.
The Taliban regime does not recognize the legitimacy of the Ghani regime, and after the U.S. withdrawal, the possibility of the Afghan government organizing early elections is very high. We also support an open and inclusive framework of peace program, under which some form of interim government or coalition government will be established, without which there will be no real peace and reconciliation, no real stability and stability. When and in which way, that certainly remains to be seen.
I think the only option can only be the establishment of a coalition government. Once a coalition government is formed, or in the process of forming a coalition government, all parties concerned, including the United States and NATO, still have to continue to maintain, or even increase, their assistance to Afghanistan.
The ninth foreign ministers' meeting of the Istanbul Process on Afghanistan was held recently, and the theme was "Building Consensus for Peace and Development", which means that the issues of peace and development are closely linked.
Therefore, the establishment of an interim coalition government in Afghanistan during the transition period, although it may be a transition period, is inevitable. And it is necessary for the international community to provide greater support assistance to the coalition government, even if it is an interim coalition government.
Not long ago, there was a meeting in Brussels, and more than 70 countries participated, and some of them advocated cutting aid to Afghanistan, which I think is not sensible. Now Afghanistan economically speaking, the blood-making function is almost non-existent, and it totally depends on external support. The support must also last for quite some time, so that Afghanistan can slowly develop and finally get on the right track of development.
So all parties still need to provide assistance, but whose role is greater, I think it is still the United Nations to step in, and all parties to invest money. We will not lag behind in supporting aid for Afghanistan's reconstruction, but the U.S. and the EU should also take up their responsibilities and assume more obligations, after all, the mess in Afghanistan is caused by them.
Support for aid may not be able to see the results we expect in the short term, but it still has a role to play. Over the years, more than 100 billion dollars have been invested in Afghanistan, and the Afghan economy is still somewhat improved, or maintained a certain margin of positive growth.
Without such aid, Afghanistan would really be starving and unlivable, and there might even be a large-scale humanitarian disaster, which the international community does not want to see.
Observer: Does Afghanistan face a power vacuum after the U.S. withdraws its troops? If there is a power vacuum, who will step in to help fill the vacuum?
Yu Hongjun: At present, there may not be a power vacuum in the absolute sense, because after the withdrawal of U.S. and NATO troops, the Ghani government is still in place, and they will organize an interim government or a coalition government through the general election, but if there is a total failure and a power vacuum, then the UN will have to take responsibility.
The United Nations also has an assistance mission, and there was such an experience in Cambodia in the past, so that the international community will also work together, we will not allow a certain country, a certain force to take the opportunity to return and turn Afghanistan into their own sphere of influence again. We still hope that the international community will work together to promote the process of "Afghan-led and Afghan-owned", so that if there is a power vacuum or a setback to peace, we will push the international community, through the United Nations, to work together to clean up the situation.
Observer: As you mentioned, Afghanistan's economy is very fragile, and the U.S. withdrawal has left a mess in Afghanistan. At present, the population of Afghanistan is close to 40 million, but the economic development mainly relies on international aid, can China help Afghanistan achieve economic reconstruction?
Yu Hongjun: Afghanistan's economic reconstruction is a very complicated, very difficult and very long process. We cannot expect a booming large-scale economic construction in Afghanistan immediately after the withdrawal of U.S. troops and NATO.
For historical and practical reasons, the struggle for power in Afghanistan may be the first, so that its transition will be very difficult, the economic recovery will be very difficult, the international community must do its best to provide assistance, we have done a lot of efforts through the "Belt and Road" cooperation, but the trade volume of China and Afghanistan will not have much development, we know that Afghanistan can provide external things are very limited, it needs more assistance and support, we help Afghanistan to build infrastructure, ADB to provide assistance to Afghanistan, etc., basically are inputs.
If the international community reduces or interrupts aid, it will be a disaster for Afghanistan, and that will be even more detrimental to the peace and reconciliation process in Afghanistan.
Observer: Biden claims to have completely withdrawn from Afghanistan and will focus on priorities such as China, how do you see the U.S. strategic contraction in the Middle East? How do you view the U.S. layout in the Asia-Pacific region?
Yu Hongjun: In recent years, the U.S. has been taking some degree of strategic contraction in the Middle East, but this contraction is very slow.
The U.S. is a country intent on controlling global affairs and wants to maintain its sufficient political influence and military intervention capability in any region, so by pulling back in the Middle East, the U.S. mainly wants to minimize its losses, but it will not completely withdraw from the Middle East, much less be indifferent to the affairs of the Middle East. The development of the Middle East affairs occurring now and in the future can not be separated from the United States.
The U.S. is pulling back from the Middle East and moving to the Asia-Pacific region because the U.S. has an important intention to treat China as its number one competitor. The U.S. has increased its platooning in the Asia-Pacific region, but it will not completely abandon its focus on the Middle East, Iran, and Afghanistan.
In the long run, the U.S. remains an important player in Middle Eastern affairs, and it is impossible for affairs in the Middle East to develop without a U.S. shadow and a U.S. role. On the other hand, the U.S. political and military arrangements against China in the Asia-Pacific region are further increasing in intensity, which is an important dynamic in the current development of the international strategic landscape.
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