About the differences and consensus between the position of China and the U.S. on the Ukraine crisis, I think some of the things I'm going to say have already been said, so I’ll be very brief.
First of all, in terms of consensus or agreement, I thinkboth China and the U.S. agree that Russia's military operation against Ukraine violates the UN Charter and the principle of no-use of force to resolve international disputes. I think we agree on that, but China has been more diplomatic in expressing this position.
The second agreement is thatthe war is not in the interest of anybody and should be ended as soon as possible. So that's probably an area of agreement for different reasons. I think China has its own reason for ending the war and the U.S. has its own reasons to end the war. Some Chinese suspect that one of the reasons for the U.S. to favor an early end to the war is to facilitate its focus on China.
The third area of agreement is thatevery effort should be made to prevent the escalation of the war into a nuclear disaster. That has been discussed.
And finally, I think we agree thatwe need to welcome any effort to broker peace, but it seems to me thatwe have more differences than agreements.
First of all, we disagree as to the cause of the conflict. China has attached more importance to NATO expansion as a course.Of course, there are other reasons that Chinese acknowledge, but it seems to me (that) China highlights the NATO expansion.The U.S. tends to highlight the Russian’s ambition to rebuild its empire. So we seem to highlight different things when we talk about the cause of the conflict.
In terms of the reason for ending the war, China believes that the war has brought harm to both countries and the world.And, of course, as far as China is concerned, China does not want to face the negative consequence of a collapse of Russia. Given the tension between China and the U.S., China needs Russia as a friend and partner. And also, China does not want to face the possibility of more sanctions on the part of the West against China if the war prolongs to the extent that the anti-China forces would prevail in bringing such kind of sanctions against China in those countries. Both the collapse of Russia and additional sanctions against China are unacceptable to China. So the earlier we have an end to the conflict the better.
For the U.S., there is the threat of escalation of the war into a nuclear exchange, and also the likelihood of being trapped into a prolonged and costly conflict with Russia.That's the reason for ending the war, or at least the primary reason. And for some people in the U.S., to be trapped in a prolonged war with Russia is not good for the U.S. also because it diverts its resources to contain China.
The third area of difference is about China's neutrality. China believes that China has the right (to stay neutral).In history, the U.S. practiced this a lot, the first World War, the second World War, the U.S. played the neutrality role.But, for the U.S., for some Americans at least, China's neutrality means China's siding with Russia or endorsement of Russia’s activities.Even though that's not true, but it has a lot of acceptance.
The fourth area of differences is the preferred end of the war. China wants a compromise between Russia and Ukraine, some kind of a settlement on the basis of interests, probably whatever kind of agreement that they can reach, China probably would accept. But the U.S. has not made up its mind, but it seems to me thatat least a lot of people want an ideological as well as a military victory, especially an ideological one. There is a very high ideological tone in U.S. rhetoric.
So are the differences between China and the U.S. lead to more tension in China-U.S. relations? Of course, more likely than not.The U.S. is suspicious that China is going to help Russia. There're good reasons to do so, given the tension between the two countries. China has refrained from publicly condemning Russia. Instead, it has publicly attributed the cause of the conflict to NATO expansion. That is unacceptable to a lot of Americans. The U.S. is not going to like it, and there are people in the U.S. urging the Biden administration to impose sanctions on China for taking side with Russia. And there are people who are making up or catering the possibility of China's taking advantage of Russia invasion to take over Taiwan by force.
Is there some room for cooperation between China and the U.S. in resolving the Ukraine crisis? Of course, there is room, but the probability for that to happen is very small.First, the two sides can urge Russia and Ukraine to have a ceasefire and engage in negotiation. Second, the U.S. can encourage China to play a larger role in brokering peace instead of politicizing China's action in this regard. Actually, China enjoys a unique position of being friendly to both sides. Thirdly, both sides can play a role of guarantors once a peaceful settlement is obtained, and both have the credibility of doing it. And finally, both countries can play a large role in Ukraine's postwar reconstruction. If China and the U.S. can do this, it should also help moderate the tension between them. However, as I said earlier, the chance for that to happen is small. Thank you.
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