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The Analysis of the 2017 French Election

April 21 , 2017 11:17 AM by CUI Hongjian

[Author] CUI Hongjian

[Abstract] The first round of voting will take place in the French presidential election on April 23. This year’s French elections have been described as the most difficult to predict, with the four front-runners now close to each other by no more than five percentage points. Adding to the uncertainty is the fact that 30 percent of voters are still undecided. The Dark Horse of the election, former Economy Minister Macron, continued to lead the pack with 24 percent support, according to data released by ELABE polling agency on the 21st. Far-right “National Front”President Marine Le Pen’s support rate fell slightly to 21.5% , the former prime minister, caught in the “Empty Pay Gate”of Fillon’s support rate rose to 20% ; Mélenchon, the far-left candidate who has shot to fame this month, is 19.5 per cent. It is worth noting that the poll was conducted before the terrorist attacks on the avenue des Champs-Élysées on the 20th. According to French media reports, internal sources said the gunman was a 39-year-old Frenchman; But the ISIS , which claimed responsibility for the attack, claimed that it was a Belgian member. The police are now investigating whether the gunman had an accomplice.The attack, which occurred during the countdown to the general election, is widely expected to add to the already tight first round of voting.What will the French people choose? Will Lepon really be the French equivalent of President Donald Trump? Cui Hongjian, director of the Institute of European Studies at the China Institute of International Studies, interprets these questions for Jie Mian.